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Credit Risk Migration & Transition Momentum Matrix

14x14 Markov Transition Kernel, Rolling 4Q Drift Velocity & Rating Inflow Radar
CECL / SR 11-7 Migration Protocol
MIGRATION MOMENTUM AUDIT: Calculating rating drift velocity...
Rolling 4Q U:D Momentum Ratio
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-- upgrades vs downgrades
Criticized Inflow Velocity
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Pass → OAEM/Substandard rate
Rating Stability Retention
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On-diagonal Markov persistence
Net 4Q Downgrade Burn
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Volume delta (Downgrades - Upgrades)
14x14 Markov Transition Matrix (Annual Probabilities %) Row = Initial Grade | Column = Ending Grade | Blue Diagonal = Stability | Red = Downgrades | Green = Upgrades
Upgrade (Lower Triangle) Stable (Diagonal) Downgrade (Upper Triangle)
Rolling 4-Quarter Upgrade vs Downgrade Volume Quarterly Dollar Velocity ($ Millions)
1-Year Forward Markov Chain Balance Drift Current Active ($M) vs Expected Year-End Distribution

Active Loan-Level Rating Migration & Drift Audit

Recent Cycle Re-Rating Trajectory
Loan ID Borrower Segment Property Type Prior Rating Current Rating Notch Delta Migration Direction Outstanding Regulatory Status
REGX³ • PORTFOLIO SENTINEL SUITE | RUN DATE: • 24819-AUDIT-ACTIVE
SR 11-7 MARKOV CREDIT MIGRATION • 1-YEAR FORWARD BALANCE DRIFT KERNEL